Global food waste bill to hit $540bn in 2026

A staggering $540 billion in global value is set to be lost to food waste in 2026, according to a landmark report released today by Avery Dennison.

The findings reveal that food waste has evolved from a sustainability concern into a “business-critical” financial crisis, with the average supply chain loss now equivalent to 33% of total revenue.

The report, Making the Invisible Visible, warns that despite global commitments to halve waste by 2030, the economic cost is accelerating — rising from $526 billion last year toward a projected cumulative total of $3.4 trillion by the end of the decade.

The primary driver of this financial hemorrhage is a profound lack of visibility. According to the research, which surveyed 3,500 global retail and supply chain leaders, 61% of businesses admit they do not have a full view of where food waste occurs within their operations.

Transit remains the most significant “blind spot,” with 56% of leaders reporting a total lack of understanding regarding waste levels during the transportation phase. This lack of data is preventing companies from identifying whether losses are occurring due to temperature fluctuations, mechanical delays, or poor handling.

The report identifies meat as the most volatile and costly category for retailers. In 2026 alone, meat waste is projected to cost the global economy $94 billion — nearly one-fifth of the total global waste bill. Fresh produce follows closely behind at $88 billion.

The 2025 holiday season acted as a catalyst for these concerns. Ahead of peak trading, 67% of retail leaders predicted that meat waste would hit profit margins harder than in previous years. Operational challenges are being exacerbated by external economic factors, with 74% of retailers admitting that inflation has made it nearly impossible to accurately forecast demand for fresh proteins.

Industry experts argue that food waste has become an “accepted cost” that can no longer be ignored in a volatile market. Julie Vargas, VP/GM at Avery Dennison, suggests that the solution lies in “item-level” digital identification to transform historic operating costs into measurable value.

“The biggest challenge is what we can’t see,” Vargas stated. “From transit to shelf, blind spots are silently eroding margins. With the right innovation, we can turn this loss into measurable value.”

The report found that 51% of business leaders blame poor inventory management and overstocking for their waste levels. Strategies such as real-time shelf-life management and advanced demand forecasting are now being positioned as essential tools for survival rather than optional upgrades.

The financial data casts a shadow over the UN’s Sustainable Development Goal 12.3, which aims to halve global food waste by 2030. According to the study, 27% of leaders now believe they will miss that deadline.

However, there is a glimmer of optimism: 73% of business leaders now view tackling food waste as a genuine growth opportunity. By shifting the conversation from “societal issue” to “business opportunity,” economists hope that the $540 billion “call to action” will finally trigger the cross-supply chain collaboration needed to bridge the visibility gap.