Just 5% of British farmers are optimistic about the country’s ability to secure its long-term food supply, as rising costs, unpredictable weather and policy uncertainty put pressure on farm profitability and domestic production.

Food security under pressure

Britain’s ability to secure its future food supply is becoming a growing concern for farmers, with new research from McCain Foods highlighting the combination of financial, climate and policy pressures facing domestic agriculture.

McCain’s second annual Farmdex report found that just 5% of farmers are optimistic about Britain’s ability to secure its long-term food supply, while 87% are pessimistic. Reliance on imports and the difficulty of competing with cheaper imported food are among the concerns shaping that outlook.

The findings matter beyond the farm gate. For food and drink manufacturers, the availability, cost and resilience of domestic raw materials are increasingly connected to the ability of farmers to remain profitable and invest in production.

More than nine in ten farmers (91%) believe greater investment in British farming is needed to safeguard long-term food security.

Profitability is limiting investment

The immediate pressure is financial.

McCain found that 87% of farmers say rising input costs have significantly affected profitability over the past year. More than a quarter (27%) reported either making a loss or breaking even, while a further 29% made a profit of just 1–5%.

The financial pressure is also affecting farmers’ willingness or ability to remain in the sector. Some 42% have considered leaving farming because of financial constraints, while 40% question whether they will still be farming in ten years.

That creates a longer-term supply challenge for food manufacturers. If farms cannot generate sufficient returns to maintain production, invest in equipment or adopt new practices, domestic supply capacity becomes more difficult to protect.

Planning becomes harder

Long-term investment is also being constrained by uncertainty.

Some 86% of farmers say policy uncertainty is negatively affecting their farm, while 74% report that increasingly unpredictable weather is making it harder to manage their businesses effectively.

The combination is significant because agricultural investment often requires a long planning horizon. Decisions around machinery, irrigation, soil management, energy, storage and other infrastructure depend on farmers having enough confidence in future returns to justify the expenditure.

McCain’s research found that 61% of farmers believe government support that improves long-term profitability would give them greater confidence to invest, while 47% point to simpler application and compliance requirements.

Trade policy is also becoming more prominent. Some 53% of farmers identify better trade policies to protect British farmers as the single most important action policymakers could take, up from 44% in last year’s report.

Farmers surveyed expressed concern that cheaper imports produced to lower standards could make it harder for British producers to compete.

Climate turns resilience into a production issue

Weather is adding another layer of risk.

McCain’s research comes after what it describes as a record-breaking drought, with 27% of farmers identifying climate change as one of the biggest pressures on their farm’s finances. A further 34% see it as one of the biggest long-term threats to the growth of British farming.

For manufacturers reliant on agricultural commodities, this makes climate resilience a supply-chain issue rather than simply an environmental consideration.

Water availability is particularly important. Changes in rainfall patterns and periods of drought can affect yields, crop quality and production planning, potentially increasing the volatility of raw material supply and prices.

The response is already beginning to involve changes in farming practice. Some 64% of farmers agree that sustainable practices are essential to the future of farming, while 65% have invested at least to some extent in sustainable practices during the past five years.

There is also a notable relationship between investment and confidence: 35% of farmers who have made significant investments in sustainability are optimistic about the future of British farming, compared with 17% across the wider sample.

Technology becomes part of the resilience equation

Technology is another area where farmers see potential to strengthen the sector, with 63% identifying it as essential to farming’s future.

That points towards a broader role for technology in food security — from improving productivity and resource efficiency to supporting more precise use of water, inputs and energy.

For the food and drink manufacturing sector, the implications extend across the supply chain. Technology deployed on farms can influence the consistency, traceability and availability of raw materials before they reach processing facilities.

It also creates a potential connection between agricultural investment and manufacturing technology. Greater resilience at the farm level can reduce some of the variability that manufacturers have to manage further down the supply chain.

Food security becomes a supply-chain question

McCain’s findings suggest that the future of British food production cannot be separated from the economics of farming.

James Young, Vice President Agriculture, McCain Foods GB&I, says the latest Farmdex report shows a sector continuing to face significant challenges, despite some improvement in individual indicators.

> “No single group can secure the future of British farming alone.”

Young argues that farmers, businesses, industry bodies and policymakers all have a role in creating greater certainty and supporting long-term investment.

For manufacturers, that message is increasingly relevant. Food security ultimately depends not only on how much food the country can produce, but on whether the businesses producing it can remain viable, invest in resilience and adapt to changing environmental and economic conditions.

McCain is calling for greater investment in food and farming, wider adoption of regenerative farming practices, improved water resilience, faster technology adoption and workforce upskilling, alongside trade arrangements that it says should hold imports to the same standards as British produce.

The underlying issue for the wider food industry is therefore not simply how farmers are coping today. It is whether the conditions exist for them to continue investing in the productive capacity, technology and resilience needed to supply manufacturers in the years ahead.