Global beverage alcohol consumption volume is projected to contract for a further six years before resuming growth in 2031, according to the latest annual global data release from industry insights firm IWSR.

The comprehensive report, which includes confirmed consumption figures alongside IWSR’s first ten-year forecasts for 160 national markets, reveals that global volume will steadily recover much of its recent losses by 2035.

Over the course of the decade, this trajectory will culminate in a marginal negative one per cent total volume decline. Industry analysts indicate that this post-2031 stabilisation will be propelled by two structural catalysts: a massive geographic rebalancing of the global marketplace and a nine per cent increase in the worldwide legal drinking-age population.

A profound market rebalancing is currently underway as consumption patterns migrate away from China, North America, and Europe toward emerging growth engines in India, South America, and Africa. When evaluated by total servings, the projected directional shifts are stark.

Between 2025 and 2035, alcohol servings are forecast to plunge by 19 per cent in China, 18 per cent in the United States, 14 per cent in Germany, and 13 per cent in the United Kingdom. Conversely, servings are expected to surge in developing sectors, with Mexico rising 13 per cent, Vietnam up 15 per cent, Colombia growing 26 per cent, and India expanding by a massive 38 per cent. Driven by this momentum, India is on track to overtake the US by 2032 to become the world’s second-largest alcohol market.

This geographic realignment coincides with a structural moderation trend driven by both economic and lifestyle factors. Consequently, global annual per capita consumption of pure alcohol is forecast to drop by half a litre by 2035.

At a category level, performance varies wildly over the next decade. Wine faces the steepest downturn, with volumes forecast to plummet by 14 per cent. Spirits and beer will remain more resilient, experiencing minor volume contractions of two percent and one percent, respectively. Meanwhile, ready-to-drink (RTDs) products will buck the downward trend entirely, with a 17 percent volume growth forecast over the decade. This follows a historic milestone where, for the first time since IWSR records began in 1990, the total worldwide volume of spirits consumed officially exceeded that of wine.

Marten Lodewijks, president and managing director of IWSR, noted that while the forecast stabilisation provides some optimism, structural hurdles remain.

“The forecast stabilisation in global beverage alcohol volumes is good news for the industry, but there are still plenty of challenges ahead,” Lodewijks stated. “2035 will be a vastly different market landscape than the one we see today, and producers will need to cater to changing consumer tastes in established markets as well as prepare for significant changes in where consumption is taking place.”

He additionally warned that “companies that only rely on past successes to carry them through the next decade will face serious challenges.”