The world’s largest B2B chocolate processor, Barry Callebaut, has just released its nine-month key sales figures for fiscal year 2025/26.

The headline news is a major relief for the industry: sales volumes have finally returned to positive territory, jumping 5.7% in the third quarter. This marks the group’s first quarterly volume expansion in over two years, signalling that the crippling supply and price shocks of recent seasons are beginning to stabilise.

However, beneath the surface of this volume recovery lies a more complex, volatile financial picture that food and drink manufacturers need to watch closely.

The positives: a 24-month dry spell ends

The clearest win for Barry Callebaut is the sudden volume rebound. While total volume over the nine-month period remains down 2.8% (totalling 1,557,239 tonnes), the Q3 surge has allowed the company to lift its full-year volume guidance to a modest decline of around -1%.

• Outperforming the market: Barry Callebaut’s global chocolate volumes dropped only 2.3% over the nine months, notably outperforming the broader chocolate confectionery market, which contracted by 5.6% according to Nielsen data.
• Global cocoa demand surge: the global cocoa segment drove the Q3 turnaround, skyrocketing 18.0% as buyers capitalised on a brief market correction earlier in the year.
• Regional highlights: the Asia Pacific, Middle East, and Africa (AMEA) region remains the star performer, recording 10.3% growth over the nine months thanks to market share gains in China and strong momentum with Indian accounts. Meanwhile, North American supply lines stabilised as the company successfully rebuilt service levels following earlier disruptions at its St. Hyacinthe facility in Canada.

The negatives: revenue dips and pricing blindspots

Despite the volume cheer, the financial top line tells a different story.

Double-digit revenue drops: nine-month sales revenue landed at CHF 9,557.1 million, representing a 9.5% decline in local currencies (and a steep 12.7% drop in reported CHF). In Q3 alone, revenue plummeted by 21% in local currencies. This drop reflects the delayed impact of the company’s cost-plus pricing model (passing lower costs down to clients after a temporary cocoa price correction).

Gourmet under pressure: gourmet and specialties volumes fell 2.8% over the nine months, pinched by intense competition as rivals fought aggressively in a shifting price environment.

The £3,000 elephant in the room: while Barry Callebaut kept its full-year recurring EBIT (operating profit) guidance at an expected mid-teens decrease, analysts have raised red flags over its internal cocoa price assumptions. The company is modelling a cocoa price of roughly £3,000 per ton, but real-world market spots have climbed back above £4,400. If this disconnect persists, profitability into 2027 will face immense pressure.

The takeaways

1. Consumer demand is tougher than it looks. The fact that industrial chocolate volumes beat broader retail market declines suggests that consumer appetite for chocolate treats remains resilient, even if they are shifting away from premium brands toward private labels or value options.

2. Prepare for a secondary wave of pricing pressure. The dramatic drop in Barry Callebaut’s Q3 revenue shows that manufacturers enjoyed a brief window of cheaper ingredient costs due to the cost-plus model trailing a previous market dip. However, with cocoa futures spiking yet again due to ongoing climate and crop concerns in West Africa, this pricing relief is temporary. You should anticipate input costs turning sharply upward as we head into the next fiscal cycle.